Wednesday, October 18, 2006

BCS Discussion

First BCS standing came out this week and of course there is controversy.
Here are the rankings
1. Ohio State
2. USC
3. Michigan
4. Auburn
5. West Virginia
6. Florida
7. Louisville
8. Notre Dame
9. Texas
10. California

I list only the top ten but as most of you know Tennessee is ranked #11. Which goes to show that the BCS rankings are not perfect. But the BCS was intended to set up a match up between the top two teams and create a real championship game. So is it accomplishing its mission?

Ohio State is deserving of the top spot. Though it has not played the toughest schedule (the Big Ten looks weak this year and other than the Texas game, who have the really played). It is cruising through its schedule and will be a lock for the BCS title game if it beats Michigan.

USC is the number 2 rated team. USC plays a three game stretch of Oregon, Cal, Notre Dame at home. I will be surprised if USC makes it through those three games still undefeated. I actually think that USC lose two of those three. Cal has the talent to beat USC at home and the defense is coming on strong. Oregon should catch USC looking forward to the Cal game and beat them with the spread offense. Notre Dame in my mind is the most overrated team in the country and will not be able to keep up with a pretty pissed off USC team. So USC won't be staying too long in the #2 spot.

I can't really explain it but I see a possible upset by Iowa this Saturday. Drew Tate is coming off a horrible game against Indiana and I always like a team bouncing back after a bad loss (unless it is Michigan State). Thus I see Michigan losing 2 games (Iowa and Ohio State). If they beat Iowa, then the winner of the Michigan vs Ohio State game gets in the championship but only one makes it. So lets say the #2 spot is still up for grabs.

Auburn deserves a look if they win out their remaining games and wins in the SEC championship game. But what happens if Auburn does not make the championship game? After all Arkansas is leading the SEC West after destroying Auburn. I think Auburn will stumble again making this a moot point. Their offense does not look great and Arkansas showed that their defense, though one of the best, does get tired and can be exploited. So Auburn does not get the #2 spot.

West Virginia and Louisville have a big game coming up which many people consider to be the Big East championship game and the winner will be undefeated for the season. But consider that Pitt is 6-1 and Rutgers is 6-0 are also in the conference. While I can not say the Big East is a power house, I can see no team emerging from the Big East undefeated. Louisville beats West Virginia, West Virginia beats Rutgers, Rutgers beats Louisville. So no #2 from the Big East.

Florida looked great until last Saturday. Will Chris Leak bounce back? I hope so, because no one gets more sh!t from his own fans than him. What he goes through make the treatment Ayoob got last year look like pats on the back. Florida, unlike Auburn, controls its own destiny by having an inroad into the SEC Championship game. Florida runs the table and wins the SEC Championship game they are a lock for #2.

Notre Dame will not make the BCS Championship game. Texas has an outside shot but the Big 12 looks pretty weak. And sorry Cal fans but I don't see how we make it to the BCS title game. Afterall, the AP and Harris polls play a role in the rankings and voters can not get it out of their minds that this Cal team now is different and markedly better than the one that came out in the opening game.

To conclude, it is way to early to tell who is going to be in what game. Ohio State is in the drivers seat and I see Florida also making a big push in the end.

But I will be more than happy to see all of you Cal fans at the Rose Bowl where we will face the loser of the Michigan vs Ohio State game. Just like the old days of Pac 10 vs Big 10 in the Granddaddy.

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