This is an interesting question now that Rutgers beat Louisville on Thursday. Let's take a look at what needs to happen for Cal to make it into the top 2, if only because if makes for interesting discussion.
1) The loser of the Ohio St. vs Michigan matchup on Nov 18th is blown out and drops significantly in the human polls.
2) Arkansas loses to Tennessee or LSU then beats Florida in the SEC Championship game. Auburn, by virtue of not playing in the SEC championship game, is not moved up in the polls.
3) Texas loses to Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game. Nebraska did nearly beat Texas earlier in the season.
4) USC loses to Cal.
5) Notre Dame loses to USC.
6) Rutgers does not get respect and is ranked below Cal in the human polls or Rutgers loses to West Virginia.
If all this happens, then Cal will be in the National Championship game. Impossible you say? Well, after seeing Rutgers start the season 9-0, anything seems possible. But, in the end, the focus for this season should be the Rose Bowl and this week Arizona. Just thought it was interesting food for thought.