So there is still the smallest chance that Cal can make it to the Rose Bowl through the back door. Here is what has to happen...
1) USC finished #2 in the BCS and plays in the BCS championship game.
2) Cal finishes in the top 14 of the BCS polls.
3) The Rose Bowl selects Cal over higher ranked teams.
Let's assume that if the first 2 happen that the Rose Bowl will select Cal as the replacement team for USC. This is a big assumption, but the Rose Bowl has not released Cal from the BCS bowl selection which means there is still a shot. So what are the chances of the top two things happening.
1) There is a high likelihood that USC will steamroll UCLA and clinch a spot in the championship. Michigan has no more games and can only leapfrog USC with a USC loss. Florida has to beat Arkansas by a considerable margin (I don't think they will even beat them) and have USC struggle or lose. So I would say the chance of USC playing in the BCS championship game is high.
2) Cal finishing in the top 14 will require a lot more.
- Cal must stomp all over Stanford. I am talking 30+ a least.
- Cal is currently #18 in the BCS, so 4 teams must fall below Cal.
- WVU or Rutgers: They play each other and the loser will most likely drop in the polls. This game has to be a blowout for the victor for Cal to benefit.
- Oklahoma: Must lose to Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game. But Nebraska must not be too impressive to leapfrog Cal.
- Wake Forest: Loses to G. Tech in the ACC championship game.
- Cal closes the gap between Tenn and themselves in the human polls and gets a slight push up from the computer polls.
- No teams leapfrog Cal in the BCS.