Cal offense vs Oregon defense - Response

Addicted to Quack, a Oregon Duck's blog, is actually a very good blog and Dave does a good job of analyzing the Cal vs Oregon game. (Though he does call us arrogant. I guess that is why we are all fans of our own schools.) Let's take a look at Dave's analysis and add our take to it. (Part 1)

Cal offense vs Oregon defense

"We all know that Oregon has trouble stopping the run, and I expect a steady dose of Justin Forsett this game. However, Forsett has been a bit banged up himself this year, as has his offensive line. And his fullback, Will Ta'ufo'ou has a torn PCL. He probably will play, but a torn knee ligament has to limit your effectiveness. Try to limit the big plays in the run game, but I would attack the weakness of their offense, and that's the passing game."

I think most people will agree that Cal will get rushing yards in this game. I guess when you can't stop the run you gotta try to stop the pass. But to call the passing game the weakness of the Cal offense is absurd.

"While our offensive line doesn't do great against the run, they have a great pass rush. Longshore isn't the most mobile guy out there, so I would throw a variety of blitzes at him and try to get him to pass under pressure. Our defensive backs are the strength of the defense, and I like their chances against the Cal receivers, especially with DeSean Jackson not at 100%."

My response:



Yeah, I like the chances of Oregon's DB's on Cal's receivers. I hope the Ducks "attack" the passing game with blitzes and go one on one on the corners.

"Cal's depth behind Forsett at RB is limited, as Best and Montgomery have both seen very limited action (13 and 19 carries, respectively). And I don't think that Forsett can do a Mike Hart and run the ball 45 times. That means Cal is going to have to pass, and when they do, I'd try and make Longshore's life a living hell."

I agree that Forsett is not a 45 carry guy. But he can handle 25 carries a game and the depth is solid. Best has limited carries because everytime he touches the ball he takes it to the house. These freshmen need to learn how to kill the clock and not break off a long run everytime.

"Another thing that we have going for us is that the game is at Autzen. Despite the fact that many Cal fans want to downplay the home field advantage, they're only fooling themselves. Longshore has a history of not playing well in hostile venues. And Cal had 14 penalties last week. While most of those were on defense, we know Autzen is always good for a couple of false starts a game."

Definitely agree with this point. Autzen is a difficult place to play and Longshore has struggle on the road. (Although Cal did just start showing the Wildcat formation where Forsett is taking direct snaps, so even this might not be a problem. That is a joke.)

"Forsett will get a ton of yards, no doubt about that. But Cal hasn't yet faced a team that combines a good pass rush and really good secondary. As long as our secondary can keep Lavelle Hawkins from getting open over the middle, we should be able to limit their passing game and put a lot of pressure on their running game to keep up with our offense. Its Aliotti defense. We might bend with the running game, but our secondary should prevent us from breaking. Basically, see the Michigan game."

Dave's makes some good analysis overall and it is true that this is the only hope for the Duck's to slow down the Cal offense. But one of two scenarios is more likely.
- Either Oregon bulks up their weak run defense by stacking the box with safeties and leave their corners in man coverage alone. This will result in Nate and Co having a field day.
- Or, Oregon rolls their safeties over to help in the passing game and get hit by the big running plays. (Forsett and Best both over 100 yards with a couple TD's each)

(The next post is Part II, Oregon's Offense vs Cal's Defense)